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Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC): Market Prices a Credit Problem That Is Not There

Published September 19, 202619 min read·TickerFile Research · Blue Owl Capital (OBDC)
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Blue Owl Capital Corp spent the first half of the year doing the unglamorous work a floating-rate lender has to do when policy rates come down. Management cut the base dividend back to the listing-era payout, let the book shrink as repayments outran new loans, and presented the reset as a match to go-forward earnings power rather than a credit event. The June quarter then covered that new base and added a small supplemental. The equity still trades as if the loan book is impaired. The filings do not show that impairment.

Net asset value slipped to $14.26 from $14.41. The prior quarter's decline was mostly spread widening on performing loans. This quarter's decline was a markdown on Loparex after a recapitalizing acquisition collapsed, while the rest of the book marked roughly flat. Adjusted net investment income rose to $0.34, lifted by the Mavis Tire preferred coming off the books in cash. That realization is the strongest evidence the platform still underwrites junior capital well. It is also the weakest evidence that the new run-rate already supports a higher base on its own.

The investment debate is whether a first-lien, upper-middle-market book with nonaccruals under one percent at fair value deserves a discount this wide, or whether the market is correctly treating a realization-boosted quarter and a shrinking portfolio as a warning that the dividend floor is less firm than management presents. The next two prints resolve that. Recurring income either holds the thirty-one cent base without another large realization, or it does not. Deployment either catches repayments at wider spreads, or the book keeps getting smaller.