National Grid has finished the cleanup that turned a mixed energy conglomerate into a two-jurisdiction network owner, and the equity now turns on whether the largest capital programme in the group's history compounds earnings rather than merely expanding the rate base. Zoë Yujnovich, in her first full year as chief executive, accepted the latest United Kingdom transmission settlement and raised the five-year spend floor to seventy billion pounds. That is the debate. Regulated asset growth is visible, but delivery, refunds, and share count still sit between the spend and the residual claim.
The year to late March showed the mechanism working on the regulated side and leaking on the unregulated side. Underlying earnings per ordinary share reached 78p at constant currency. That print was an eight percent lift even after the Grain LNG and renewables exits, storm costs, a larger share count, and the New England transmission refund. New York operating profit jumped on the Niagara Mohawk rate plan. New England was essentially flat because federal regulators cut allowed returns. That mix is the real story. The United Kingdom transmission engine is carrying the group while the northeastern franchise absorbs a regulatory haircut.
Management guides a mid-teens rise in underlying earnings for the coming fiscal year as allowed transmission revenue steps up. The open question is whether that step-up survives cash refunds, scrip dilution, and a $1.8 billion minority stake in a Texas data-centre power platform that sits outside the regulated programme. Does the market get paid for delivery, or only for the promise of a larger rate base?