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Studio City International (MSC): Mass Floor Meets the Interest Wall

Published September 19, 202612 min read·TickerFile Research · Studio City International (MSC)
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Studio City is Melco's listed Cotai box after the parent pulled VIP play off the floor, and the second quarter showed how thin that residual claim still is. A brief first-quarter profit print did not survive softer mass tables and a year-ago entertainment compare that was never the run-rate. The public stub now has to clear roughly $30 million of quarterly interest on a hotel that is already full. That is the investment debate: whether a mass-only floor plus rooms can widen cash after a refinance that bought time rather than a smaller balance sheet.

Gross gaming revenue barely moved, but that stability was hold, not volume. Mass table drop slipped to $884 million while the prior-year compare sat near $958 million. Hold improved, which masked the volume fade. Entertainment revenue fell to $4 million from a concert-heavy $19 million year-ago quarter. Rooms stayed sold out at a higher daily rate, so visitation is not the problem. The problem is how little incremental cash those full rooms throw off once Melco takes taxes and operator costs off the casino contract.

May's notes deal swapped expensive 2027 paper for longer 2031 notes and cut the coupon. July then retired more 2028 notes with a revolver draw, which extends the wall without shrinking net claims by much. Cash ended June near $118 million. The next two prints decide whether drop recovers and whether the show calendar rebuilds, or whether the stub remains an interest residual on a full hotel.