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Miller Industries (MLR): Cash Recovery Funds a Distant Defense Book

Published September 19, 202618 min read·TickerFile Research · Miller Industries (MLR)
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Miller Industries is the world's largest wrecker and car-carrier franchise, and the second quarter finally showed what last year's destock was hiding. Production can run at a mid-cycle clip without stuffing distributors. The investment debate is whether that clip is a new operating floor or a one-quarter bounce after a year that cut sales by more than a third. Military commitments now exceed $200 million. Production is scheduled to start in 2027.

The print mixed a sales recovery with earnings that still sit below last year because mix, tariffs, and purchase accounting ate the increment. Quarterly sales reached $240 million. Diluted earnings were $0.63. Gross margin slipped as chassis mix normalized and Section 232 steel and aluminum costs stayed in the stack. Omars, the Italian recovery-vehicle maker bought last December, added sales while fair-value and amortization charges reduced earnings. Cash generation was the cleaner story. The company paid the revolver to zero and still funded the dividend, a modest buyback, and site work on the Tennessee plant.

Management reaffirmed full-year sales between $850 million and $900 million. Earnings are described as generally in line with last year, with full-year gross margin sliding back toward the historical mid-thirteen percent area as mix normalizes. The market is capitalizing a still-depressed trailing earnings print at a mid-forties multiple while the forward multiple is closer to twenty times. The next two quarters resolve whether a quarterly run rate near $250 million holds and whether that margin guide is honesty or sandbagging.