Back to EXEL overview

Exelixis (EXEL): Building a Second Act Beyond Cabometyx

Published August 25, 202620 min read·TickerFile Research · Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL)
ShareXLinkedIn

Exelixis is spending 2026 executing the classic playbook of a maturing, profitable oncology company: extracting the remaining growth from a highly successful small-molecule franchise while positioning a successor molecule to pick up the baton. The second quarter of 2026 delivered exactly the kind of quarter that makes this transition possible. Revenue growth accelerated, gross margins held at pharmacy-like levels, and earnings per share crossed $0.80 on a diluted basis. The headline narrative, however, is not another solid Cabometyx quarter; it is the filing's clear framing of zanzalintinib as a potential second commercial pillar, with a Food and Drug Administration decision scheduled for late 2026 and a broader development program in renal cell carcinoma and neuroendocrine tumors that could open additional indications through 2027 and 2028.

Total revenues in the second quarter of 2026 were $628.7 million, an 11% increase over the $568.3 million reported in the same period a year earlier. Net product revenues reached $573.0 million, up 10% from $520.0 million, almost entirely on the back of Cabometyx demand in first-line renal cell carcinoma combinations and neuroendocrine tumors. Net income was $212.1 million, or $0.85 per basic share and $0.82 per diluted share, compared with $184.8 million, or $0.68 per basic share and $0.65 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2025. At a recent price near $56, the stock carries a market capitalization of roughly $13.9 billion, a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of about 17.6x, and a forward multiple near 13.5x.

The investment case rests on a simple but underappreciated tension. Cabometyx is an unusually profitable oncology asset that funds both aggressive shareholder returns and a deep pipeline. Zanzalintinib, if approved, has the clinical profile to become a second multi-indication franchise. Yet the clock is not infinite. Generic challengers have already filed abbreviated new drug applications and 505(b)(2) new drug applications against Cabometyx, and policy headwinds from drug pricing legislation and proposed tariffs could slowly compress pricing power. The stock's forward multiple suggests the market sees both the opportunity and the risk, and has chosen to price the company as a slow-growth incumbent with option value rather than as a high-growth pipeline story.

The most important negative signal to track is not the binary Food and Drug Administration decision on zanzalintinib alone, but the slope of Cabometyx volume and price over the next four quarters. A sustained deceleration in the legacy franchise would force investors to rely more heavily on unproven revenue, while resilience there would give management additional time and capital to build a diversified oncology platform. The next twelve months are a race between the maturation of a new pipeline and the encroachment of competition on the old one.