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AXT Q2 FY2026: InP Inflection Quarter as Three Long-Term Supply Pacts and $445M Cash Rearchitect the Equity

Published August 15, 202620 min read·TickerFile Research · AXT INC (AXTI)

AXT's second quarter ended June 30, 2026 is the print where the company stops being a small Chinese-substrate manufacturer and starts to be priced as an indium phosphide platform for the AI data-center build-out. Revenue of $47.6M was 165% above a year ago, GAAP gross margin of 44.9% was up 36.9 points from 8.0% in Q2 FY2025, and the company swung from a $7.0M net loss to $11.1M of net income on a GAAP basis - $0.17 diluted EPS versus a $0.16 loss - its first material profitable quarter in the data. The substrate line, 78.9% of Q2 revenue, grew 232.7% year over year, almost entirely on indium phosphide wafers for data-center optical transceivers, after China began issuing export permits again in June FY2025. The forward read is that the company has now converted InP into a contracted business: the June 11 Nanjing Casela commitment of approximately $25.4M for 2027 volume, the June 26 Coherent master development and supply agreement with a $22.3M refundable prepayment for 6-inch InP, and the July 26 Lumentum capacity reservation with $43.5M due within 30 business days and a second $43.5M deposit to be timed in calendar 2028. The market is also now financing the build: the January 2026 public offering of approximately 10.2M shares brought in $93.6M of additional paid-in capital, the share count has moved from 43.7M to 65.6M, and cash plus investments crossed $748M, against which short-term loans of $84.2M and long-term debt of $15.5M are immaterial. The stock at $77.45 - a 52-week range of $2.05 to $143.16 - implies a $5.24B market capitalization, or roughly 42x trailing revenue on the $125.5M vendor-calculated trailing twelve months, a multiple that assumes the next two years of the ramp and the Lumentum/Coherent/Casela capacity run-rate are executed. The open question the quarter answers for the equity is execution: AXT must convert $87M of Lumentum deposits, $22.3M of Coherent prepayment, and a $25.4M Casela commitment into recognized revenue on a schedule that is visible quarter by quarter, and it must file the next 10-Q (Q3 FY2026) without a sequential revenue step-up fading.