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American Express Q2 2026 Earnings: Premium Velocity Beats the Bear Case

Published August 15, 202623 min read·TickerFile Research · AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP)

American Express used the second quarter to do something the rest of the card networks have not managed: print a 10% revenue print and an 11% earnings-per-share print in the same quarter that consumer credit quality was actively deteriorating across the industry. Card Member spending rose 9% on an FX-adjusted basis - the strongest in three years - and net interest income grew 11% as revolving balances expanded 8% on a base that is no longer being propped up by pandemic-era stimulus. The headline was the guidance raise: full-year revenue growth is now 10%, two points above where it sat going into the print, and full-year EPS of $17.30 to $17.90 was reaffirmed, meaning management is plowing the upside back into growth initiatives rather than letting it drop to the bottom line. The quarter answered a question nobody had fully framed: whether the Platinum refresh that drove 2024–25 acceleration was a one-product sugar high or a model phenomenon. The two product lines that define the franchise - U.S. Consumer Services and International Card Services - both grew double-digit pretax income in the half, and the company took a reserve release in the quarter rather than a build, which is the credit-quality tell investors had been waiting for. The open question for the next six months is whether the raised 10% revenue guide holds through a credit cycle that has not yet shown its hand in the consumer book - net write-offs held at 2.0% principal-only for the second straight quarter, but delinquencies ticked down only because higher-spending, higher-credit-quality customers are being added at the front of the book while the long-tail card base is being managed down.