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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR): Plozasiran Meets the Sarepta Bridge

Published August 18, 202629 min read·TickerFile Research · Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR)
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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is the most consequential clinical-stage RNAi franchise of the past five years, and the most recent fiscal quarter is the print that proves the platform is no longer a research bet. The headline event is not the GAAP P&L - it is the simultaneous maturation of three independent value lines in the same three-month window. Plozasiran delivered the SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 topline readouts showing deep, durable triglyceride reductions of roughly 80% with a 78% cut in acute pancreatitis events across the severe hypertriglyceridemia population, the company paid cash for a U.S. priority review voucher to compress the sNDA timeline on the same molecule, REDEMPLO prescription volume roughly doubled quarter-over-quarter with more than 400 unique prescribers, and the European Commission formally granted marketing authorization for the FCS indication - making plozasiran the first and only siRNA therapy approved by the EC for adult FCS. The market is in the middle of repricing that combination.

The P&L itself looks bad in the conventional sense and that is exactly what the print is supposed to look like at this stage of the transition. Fiscal Q3 revenue of $75.3M was more than double the prior-year quarter but trails the prior sequential quarter, because the Sarepta collaboration step-in triggered a contract modification that compressed Q3 deferred-revenue amortization and a cumulative catch-up was recorded in the period. Nine-month revenue of $413.0M is roughly 28% below the prior-year nine months, which themselves were a one-time Sarepta upfront. R&D spend stepped up to $198.2M in Q3 (+22% YoY) and SG&A to $47.1M (+52% YoY) as the commercial launch and pipeline both expanded, producing a Q3 net loss of $(194.3)M and a 9M net loss of $(296.2)M. The P&L deterioration is, on the most plausible reading, a clean reinvestment print, not a structural break.

The balance sheet is the underappreciated piece. Total cash and investments finished the period at $1.57B, up from $781.5M at fiscal year-end, after a $700M zero-coupon convertible note issuance in January 2026, a $230M follow-on equity offering at $64.50, $74.1M in net ATM proceeds, $100M of pre-funded warrant proceeds, and roughly $200M of milestone cash from Sarepta. The Capped Call overlay at a $119.33 cap protects against conversion dilution up to roughly a 37% move above the current price. Net loss to Arrowhead for the nine months is being absorbed inside a $466M equity base with a convertible that is not interest-bearing in cash. The runway appears multi-year and the financing risk that hung over the stock for most of 2024 has receded.

The market is pricing a commercial-stage RNAi platform with a single approved product, a 13-program partnership portfolio with three large-cap counterparties, and a Phase 3 sHTG filing on the immediate horizon. At a 52-week range of $19.42 to $95.49 and a recent close near the top of that band, the trade is the SHASTA-3/4 data, the sNDA acceptance, the REDEMPLO launch curve, and the 2032 convertible cap. The forward catalyst calendar is event-dense, and the watch items are data, not financing.