Aris Mining's second quarter arrived as a near-perfect snapshot of a mid-tier gold producer running two mines at full stretch, building a third, and stacking cash on a balance sheet that has gone from stretched to comfortable in eighteen months. Gold revenue reached $321 million on 72,124 ounces sold at a $4,450 average realized price, and trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA printed at $690 million - a number that, on a single multiple, would frame this as a fully-priced intermediate gold producer. The quarter itself was not a breakout: net income of $94 million was up sharply from a year ago, but down 4% sequentially because the realized price softened and Segovia's mill head grade stepped down on a deliberate mining sequence. The single test for the second half is the Marmato CIP plant, scheduled to pour first gold in Q4 2026, with roughly $118 million of capex still to deploy against $42 million of remaining Wheaton stream funding. Everything else - the gold price, the production growth at Segovia, the cost curve, the deleveraging from $242 million of net debt at year-end 2024 to $44 million today - is already in the run-rate. The stock, at roughly $17.26, trades not far below its 52-week high of $23.29 and well above the year's $6.70 low; the question is no longer whether the operational story works, but whether the new mine comes online on schedule and at the cost discipline management has been promising.
The quarter's two readings. The first is a routine operating quarter: $321 million in gold revenue, $167 million in income from mining operations, $179 million of Adjusted EBITDA, $94 million of net income, and $0.47 of adjusted basic EPS, all roughly in line with the prior quarter and the company's own first-half run-rate. The second reading is what the year-over-year gap says about the price tailwind. A year ago, in Q2 2025, this same business produced 25% less gold at a 26% lower realized price, generating just $200 million of revenue and an Adjusted EBITDA of $99 million. The gold price has done the lifting: H1 2026 revenue of $703 million is 95% above H1 2025's $361 million, almost entirely through price and Segovia's expanded mill capacity from the second ball mill commissioned in June 2025. The mine is more productive, but the price is the multiple. That is the structural backdrop against which the Marmato expansion must deliver.
The single test, in calendar terms. The Marmato Lower Mine expansion adds a 5,000 tonne-per-day carbon-in-pulp plant to the existing 1,000 tonne-per-day flotation circuit; first gold pour is targeted for Q4 2026. Management has earmarked $118 million of remaining capex to that pour, partially offset by a final $42 million Wheaton stream installment expected in Q3 2026, leaving roughly $76 million of net funding - comfortably within the $425 million cash position. On full ramp, Marmato is sized for roughly 200,000 ounces per year at steady state, lifting consolidated production to the company's stated ~500,000-ounce target. If Marmato's Q4 first-gold slips into 2027, the production guidance of 300,000-350,000 ounces for 2026 - which already requires the H2 weighted step-up to roughly 152,000-202,000 ounces from the H1 actual of 148,049 - becomes a 2027 story, and the multiple that today's $690 million trailing EBITDA commands is harder to defend. Until then, the operating engine is doing what the operating engine should do.