Adecoagro delivered record 2Q26 results on August 11, 2026, with pro forma Adjusted EBITDA of $172.5 million, up 52.4% year-over-year on a Profertil-inclusive basis, and $258.3 million for the first half, up 60.2%. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 32.8% in the quarter from 21.0% a year ago, and the company ended the period with $1.69 billion of net debt, equivalent to 3.0x LTM Adjusted EBITDA on a pro forma basis, down from 3.2x in 1Q26. The market, in our view, is treating the headline as a sugar-and-ethanol print; we read it as a fertilizer print with a sugar and ethanol denominator, and the distinction matters because the load-bearing driver in the quarter was Profertil urea selling at an average $699/ton against a 2Q25 pro forma reference of $444/ton.
The thesis is that the company has just acquired two assets in nine months - a 90% stake in Profertil for $596.3 million in December 2025 and the Caarap mill for approximately $148 million announced July 20, 2026 - that together re-anchor the equity as a vertically integrated South American agribusiness rather than a pure-play miller. We see the deleveraging trajectory and the 32.8% EBITDA margin as evidence that the integration is working; we see the 2Q26 ethanol maximization at a 78% mix and the carry-over of $35 million in annual cash distributions as evidence that the sugar-and-ethanol core is healthy and self-funding. The equity, at $8.91, trades at roughly 4.0x trailing Adjusted EBITDA on a pro forma basis, which we read as a discount to the South American agribusiness peer set, and we infer this is the multiple that compresses as 2H26 cash conversion prints in.
The single load-bearing risk is commodity price: 70% of the 2Q26 EBITDA lift came from urea pricing that, based on the most recent quarterly disclosure, has already rolled back from the $800/ton April peak to a CFR Brazil reference of $480/ton, and 22% came from sugar and ethanol realization that faces a 6% cost-per-pound step-up in U.S. dollar terms. The next data point that tests the thesis is the 3Q26 print in early November, which captures the first full quarter of post-peak urea pricing and the seasonal build of Brazilian Center-South cane crushing.