Archer-Daniels-Midland entered its second quarter of 2026 in the middle of a turnaround of its own making after two bruising years: a margin slump that bottomed through 2024 and 2025, a securities-law and accounting-investigation overhang that reset management trust, and a Nutrition segment that became the company's most-watched repair story. The quarter that just closed reads like the turn working. Earnings before income taxes surged to $1.1 billion from $279 million a year ago, GAAP diluted EPS rose to $1.87 from $0.45, and adjusted EPS came in at $1.84, up 98%. Segment operating profit climbed 75% to $1.45 billion, and management raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook by roughly a full dollar, to $5.15–$5.60, on the back of what it calls a constructive biofuels environment and momentum in Nutrition.
The engine behind the swing is not something ADM invented - it is a commodity and policy cycle. In March 2026 the Environmental Protection Agency finalized Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027, tightening U.S. renewable-fuel blending requirements and, in the company's telling, lifting crush and ethanol margins across the industry. Higher global energy prices and lower U.S. corn costs did the rest. Ag Services & Oilseeds, the largest segment, produced $867 million of operating profit in the quarter, up 129%, and Carbohydrate Solutions rode corn-ethanol strength to a 22% gain. Nutrition, the healing story, grew operating profit 51%. This is an earnings rebound built on a favorable crush-and-grind environment, not on volume growth or structural demand - which is precisely why the central question of this report is durability. At roughly 15x forward adjusted earnings against a raised guide, and about 22x trailing GAAP, the market is pricing the cycle persisting. The report's job is to lay out what would confirm that, and what would break it.