Allied Gold's second quarter was the operational prelude to the load-bearing event of the year: the August commissioning of the Kurmuk mine in Ethiopia and the August 10 closing of a $295 million strategic investment by Zijin Gold that replaced a terminated C$5.5 billion takeout bid. Q2 2026 production of 97,429 gold ounces was 7% above the prior year comparative period and consistent with the 385,000-425,000 ounce producing-mine guidance, while the realized at-market gold price of approximately $4,380 per ounce pushed revenue to $366.3 million, GAAP attributable net earnings to $37.2 million ($0.27 diluted), and Adjusted EBITDA to $166.9 million. Cash of $192.2 million at quarter-end is the expected trough, given $158.9 million of Kurmuk expansionary capex and a $129.7 million cash-tax payment for the preceding year that drained working capital in the period; the cash balance rebuilds from August as Kurmuk pours first gold and the Zijin proceeds land.
The investment question is whether the market is paying for the operating turnaround plus Kurmuk execution, or for the marginal lost takeout premium. Allied shares closed at $22.77 on August 14, against a $32.20 52-week high touched in early February 2026, the period when the C$44-per-share Zijin arrangement was being priced in. The C$32.55-per-share strategic-investment price implies a reference value meaningfully above the current quote, and the $295 million of Zijin proceeds adds roughly 153% to the June 30 cash balance, framing the equity as a self-funded Kurmuk ramp rather than a stale takeout arb. The thesis is the conversion of $192 million of cash plus $295 million of Zijin proceeds plus Kurmuk gold into roughly 240,000-270,000 ounces of 2027 production at industry-leading cost; the bear case is that Kurmuk first-gold slips past August and the 52-week low at $12.25 becomes a relevant reference again. The market is pricing the mid-point, in our view, and the next eight weeks of Kurmuk ramp data is the falsification window.